NJPW New Beginning in Osaka Predictions

Ah yes. The New Beginning shows. Often the first payoffs to angles from the Wrestle Kingdom and New Years Dash events, the shows have provided us with countless memorable moments; from Kazuchika Okada beating Hiroshi Tanahashi for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship in what is now known as the "Rainmaker Shock" in 2012 to Kota Ibushi reuniting with his Golden Lovers tag partner Kenny Omega in 2018.

This year sees New Japan run the show in Osaka-Jo Hall, headlined by Tetsuya Naito defending both the IWGP Intercontinental and Heavyweight Championships against KENTA in the wake of the latter's shocking attack on the former at the conclusion of night 2 of Wrestle Kingdom. We also see Jon Moxley face arguably his biggest challenge yet for the US Title in the form of Minoru Suzuki; Hiromu Takahashi and Ryu Lee renewing their long-running rivalry with the Junior Heavyweight Championship on the line, and Jay White squaring off against SANADA after being pinned in tag team action at New Years Dash.

With such a stacked card ahead, I thought I'd give my best shot at predicting the results of each match while offering insight/logic into my choices. Let's go!

MATCH ONE - Yuji Nagata, Hiroyoshi Tenzan, Satoshi Kojima and Manabu Nakanishi vs Toa Henare, Ryusuke Taguchi, Tomoaki Honma and Togi Makabe

WINNERS: Henare, Taguchi, Honma and Makabe

Toa Henare will finally get a big win here. With the tradition of wrestlers "going out on their back" and putting over younger talent before retiring, Henare seems to be the one that can benefit the most. The company seemingly has big plans for the Kiwi, evident with his pairing with Hiroshi Tanahashi in World Tag League as well as his strong showings in the undercard of shows despite his losses in nearly all matches not involving young lions. I feel a win here for Team Henare would give a huge amount of momentum moving forward to nearly all involved in the winning team.

MATCH TWO - IWGP Jr Heavyweight Tag Team Match - Roppongi 3k (C) vs Suzuki-Gun (Desperado and Kanemaru)

WINNERS: Suzuki-Gun

While I did say earlier this year that I hoped Roppongi 3K would have a lengthy reign with the tag titles, I feel that both SHO and YOH have much more to offer as singles stars - New Japan looks to have the same idea, with the seeds of a feud with Shingo Takagi for the NEVER title being set up on February 1st. I also feel that Kanemaru and Desperado would be lost in the shuffle as singles guys, and their 304-day tag title reign from 2018-2019 proved that they could carry the division. Desperado and Kanemaru being brutal heels can also allow a sympathetic babyface tag team to eventually win the championships once the solo ranks have been rebuilt after the departure of Will Ospreay to the heavyweight ranks.

MATCH THREE - Hiroshi Tanahashi, Kota Ibushi, David Finlay and Juice Robinson vs Bullet Club (Tama Tonga, Tanga Loa, Yujiro Takahashi and Chase Owens)

WINNERS: Tanahashi, Ibushi, Finlay and Juice

The best possible option here would be for either Tanahashi or Ibushi to pin Yujiro Takahashi. This would give the psychological advantage heading into the tag team championship match between the "Golden Aces" and FinJuice, giving the impression that even as predominantly solo competitors, Tanahashi and Ibushi can function just as effectively as the tag champions. I do not see a Bullet Club win as feasible here. While Guerillas of Destiny had a very successful 2019 at the top of the tag team division, Yujiro and Chase do not seem to have much of a place in anything major, with Chase being a fixture of multi-man tag matches and Yujiro simply being there as part of a team when he is needed.

MATCH FOUR - Will Ospreay and Kazuchika Okada vs Zack Sabre Jr and Taichi

WINNERS: Zack Sabre Jr and Taichi

The deciding factor for me in this match is the experience that Zack and Taichi have as a team. They had a fairly strong showing in the World Tag League, in which they finished with a 9-6 record. Whilst Okada and Ospreay have some experience teaming together and were highly accomplished in 2019 as singles stars, Zack and Taichi regularly team together as formal partners.

In addition to this, the fact that Ospreay is transitioning to heavyweights full time this year gives the impression that there will be some re-adjusting. It's one thing to wrestle the G1 and New Japan Cup, but wrestling as a full-time heavyweight (which has a different style) may be a challenge. We may see Ospreay struggle to string big match wins together and lose some confidence, causing him to spiral for a short period before getting a string of high-profile wins.

Taichi's iron glove, microphone stand and manager Miho Abe may also be the deciding factors. The fact that he has used both the gauntlet and mic stand in previous matches involving Okada to open him up to further offence (as we saw in Sapporo on February 1st and at New Years Dash) may play on the Rainmaker's ability to string offence together.

I also reckon that the heel team will get the advantage over the CHAOS duo using brutal tactics, making Ospreay's inevitable win at RevPro's High Stakes event on February 14th seem like a huge deal.

MATCH FIVE - SANADA vs Jay White

WINNER: Jay White

This match was very difficult to decide on. Both men could potentially win. The fact that SANADA won at New Year's Dash with a roll-up gives the impression that Switchblade was caught off guard. Jay redeemed himself on night 2 with a huge win over Kota Ibushi (albeit thanks to Gedo), and I see him gaining some momentum heading into the New Japan Cup, while SANADA continues to struggle - positioning him as the underdog heading into NJC season. Overconfidence could also be the downfall of Cold Skull like it has been so many times in the past. He defeated Zack Sabre Jr time and time again in 2019, but toward the end of the year, he was caught off guard, with a similar instance happening at Wrestle Kingdom. He was seen as the better half of his team with EVIL, yet fell to the King of Darkness in G1 block competition.

Switchblade seems to be a bigger part of the Heavyweight championship picture though, which suggests he will be the one to walk away with the victory. Tetsuya Naito has publicly stated that Jay can challenge for both of his championships in the future, so it makes sense for the leader of Bullet Club to take out one of Naito's allies on the way to a championship match.

MATCH SIX - IWGP Junior Heavyweight Championship Match - Hiromu Takahashi (C) vs Ryu Lee

WINNER: Hiromu Takahashi

Hiromu has only just come back from injury, winning the championship he never lost in a match that was as excellent as it was dangerous. He nominated Ryu Lee (Dragon Lee) as his first challenger, renewing their long-running rivalry from CMLL in Hiromu's excursion days as Kamaitachi; a series in which Lee holds the advantage.

Despite this, it makes little sense to have Lee win the title from Hiromu so soon. It appears that Robbie Eagles is being set up as the next challenger, pinning Takahashi in his return match in Korakuen Hall on December 19th and tapping out Lee in Sapporo. This also gives Hiromu an advantage over his long term adversary, as so far the Time Bomb holds all victories over his opponent in IWGP Jr Heavyweight Championship matches.

Lee's commitments with ROH also turn me away from choosing him as a winner. Hiromu is wholly available in New Japan, pretty much exclusive to the lion mark. Lee, on the other hand, is the ROH TV champion, so he will not be as available.

MATCH SEVEN: IWGP US Championship Match - Jon Moxley (C) vs Minoru Suzuki

WINNER: Minoru Suzuki

It's time for the King to rule America

Suzuki is the ideal champion to lead the American brand forward for many reasons. He has no other contract restraints that would affect his availability in any way, has experience and popularity in both America and Japan, and has the appeal as a legitimate tough athlete to bring in new and lapsed fans. He also has the experience which makes him perfect to work with and develop younger talent from both the LA Dojo and elsewhere (staying fairly true to the NJPW preference of developing its own talent); can play both the brutal heel and the anti-hero, no-nonsense face which is perfect if there is more of a sway in one direction. He can also be the first step in transitioning the US title from the "Gaijin only belt" to the "wrestlers that are popular in America belt" which adds diversity to the brand as a whole.

The build to the match has also been very heavily implying that Suzuki is going to be victorious here. He has no-sold everything that Moxley has hit him with, hit his finisher with ease, and even pinned Mox in Sapporo in convincing fashion with the said finisher. The eye injury of the champion will most likely play into the match as well, as it is a blatant weak spot, which a veteran like Suzuki will be sure to exploit.

MATCH EIGHT: IWGP Intercontinental and IWGP Heavyweight Double Championship Match - Tetsuya Naito (C) vs KENTA

WINNER: Tetsuya Naito

As an LIJ fan before anything else, I am naturally rooting for Naito and fully against KENTA, a sentiment stronger than before when considering the latter's attack on January 5th and the fact that he ruined EVERYTHING. But I do have some logic as to why I think El Ingobernable will remain as "Naito 2 Belts".

First, I think it is extremely unlikely that New Japan allowed so much investment to be put into Naito to have him lose at the first hurdle. He made history at the Tokyo Dome, and while no-one can take that away from him, having him lose both championships in such a short amount of time would render the whole journey obsolete. Why have so much pain for the fans before giving us the big moment, only for it all to be torn down straight away?

Naito also laid the foundations for what should be a very long title reign in his first conference after the Tokyo Dome. He said he has no problem with the likes of Kazuchika Okada, Kota Ibushi and Jay White making challenges for either championship, while also creating a path to Hiroshi Tanahashi on the Fantastica Mania tour, with the Ace being opposite Naito's fellow Los Ingobernables throughout the tour in multi-man action in all but one event on the tour. These ties to all major players outside of LIJ as well as the likes of EVIL and SANADA becoming more driven than ever as singles competitors have laid the groundwork for many different challenges, taking away the investment in KENTA and his ability to take the top championships.

KENTA seems to still have some sort of story with Katsuyori Shibata, which I feel would be better without the championships at stake if the latter was able to return full-time (which there has been a great deal of allusion to in recent months). The fact that KENTA used Shibata's trademark PK and cross-legged pose after his attack on Naito in the post-match also foreshadows that something between the two former friends is going to happen.

The fact that the event is in Osaka is also significant, as they were one of the first audiences to turn on him as the Stardust Genius, and have remained one of the few audiences to show hostility to the now double champion since his return from Mexico in 2015. He lost to Chris Jericho in the exact same venue in 2018 for the Intercontinental Championship and was booed in portions of the match despite being the natural babyface against the dastardly gaijin heel Chris Jericho. If he can win over the crowd here against someone like KENTA, who has become the ultimate heel, he proves that he has the audience investment in key locations and has the potential to be a good champion from an emotional and a business standpoint. It is VITAL that he wins here.

Well, that's the entire show! I hope everyone enjoys what is sure to be an excellent event. What are your predictions? Follow me on Twitter @elcompactonewt, and follow the site @ringcrewmag.

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